Economists see roughly 30–40% recession odds — not dominant, but not negligible. These 4 ETFs could help investors stay ...

Concerns over the impact of tariffs have prompted investors and consumers to lower their expectations for the U.S. economy.

January 2026 layoffs hit highest level since 2009 as job openings fall, housing market weakens, and credit stress builds nationwide.

Some economists are predicting that US recession risk is rising, and a downturn could arrive before the year is out, but the supporting data to date is still thin. If the central bank does ease ...

There are certain words you don’t want to hear in a medical checkup or in an investment bank’s recession outlook: “stable but elevated.” It’s a phrase that could refer to blood pressure, even risk of ...

This has been a roller coaster year for the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, with all three enduring a mini-crash and a rip-roaring rally to new highs. A new ...

Building on Ben Bernanke’s widely used recession probability model, we invented a better model using exactly the same data. I have modeled recession forecasts since 2006. Our new method is a ...

TMC Research’s nowcast of recession risk continues to indicate a low probability that a downturn has started or is imminent. The economy has probably slowed in Q4, but the downshift doesn’t look sharp ...

Polymarket and Kalshi traders' perceived probability of a recession this year has plunged recently. Both prediction markets surged in popularity after users called Trump's election win in November.